True, Untrue, or False? Welcome to Presumption
Presumption has been around since the dark ages of debate. But it is often used incorrectly, resulting in logical or persuasive blunders. Perhaps you've seen some of the following:
"Presumption says that the status quo is on trial, and unless the affirmative can prove beyond a shadow of a doubt …"
"As the negative, we don't have to take a position. Presumption says we just have to ask a lot of questions and be contrary."
"Presumption only applies to the affirmative case and/or the resolution."
It definitely has a place - in fact, it is a foundational concept in Omni that provides an impact for a diverse range of arguments. But our expanded use is probably different from what you've seen in the past. So let go of your assumptions about the word and read on.
Presumption: the theory that we should default to the minimum level of belief that is required by the available information.
There are two broad levels of belief: positive and non-positive. A positive belief is an active, distinct idea about something, while non-positive simply means you lack a belief about it. Compare and contrast:
Resolved: Unicorns exist.
| Positive | Non-Positive | |
|---|---|---|
| True | I believe that unicorns exist. | I do not believe that unicorns do not exist. |
| False | I believe that unicorns do not exist. | I do not believe that unicorns exist. |
If the non-positive true statement looks odd to you, you’re not alone. It’s an obscure corner of epistemology that should almost never appear in rounds (more on aff and neg burdens next week). But since we’re here, it’s worth mentioning. If it helps, think of the non-positive true as “unfalse” and non-positive false as “untrue.”
Resolved: We will be mauled by jaguars.
| Positive | Non-Positive | |
|---|---|---|
| True | Before we leave this jungle, jaguars will maul us. | I do not actively believe that we are safe. |
| False | We will leave this jungle without any jaguar injuries. | I do not actively believe that we will be mauled. |
The differences between these kinds of statements are often conflated in a way that makes conversation difficult. For example, debates over the existence of God often becomes confusing because the terms atheism and agnosticism could fall under different categories.
Resolved: God exists.
| Positive | Non-Positive | |
|---|---|---|
| True | Theism | Agnosticism |
| False | Atheism | Agnosticism and Atheism |
One person claims to be a non-positive atheist, the other argues against positive atheism, and no one learns anything.
Presumption says that if we should default to non-positive beliefs until the available information compels us to change. It applies to every single claim in the debate, from the resolution down to a quick procedural point in the 2NR. And it gives us precise vocabulary so we can make progress in challenging conversations like the existence of unicorns.
What does "available information" mean? Find out next week.